učitavam...
Na vrh

Ovo je automatski prijevod.
Kliknite ovdje da biste pročitali publikaciju na izvornom jeziku.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) has come under the crossfire of strategic competition between China and the United States. The main threat comes from the United States after the central Chinese government promulgated a national security law for the HKSAR.
At this stage, it is very difficult to accurately predict what will happen next, but there are different scenarios. Since Hong Kong’s status is enshrined in a separate status in the World Trade Organization, which can only be changed by unanimous decision, there is still a risk that the United States will take unilateral actions, considering Hong Kong as mainland China in terms of trade and investment.
The potential change in Hong Kong's trade and investment status is related to a number of issues.
First, the export control of sensitive technologies in the United States is currently much milder for Hong Kong than for the mainland. This preferential status for Hong Kong is clearly at stake, as specifically stated in the Hong Kong Policy Act. The United States may also decide to expand existing import tariffs for mainland goods to Hong Kong.
Turning to investment, Hong Kong can now sign bilateral investment agreements regardless of the mainland, but this prerogative may disappear. Besides the obvious harm to Hong Kong companies and the city’s economy as a whole, it’s important to understand that Hong Kong subsidiaries of mainland companies have long enjoyed Hong Kong’s special status.
Regarding the role of Hong Kong as an offshore financial center, the repeal of the Hong Kong Policy Act will not have immediate direct consequences unless other, more damaging measures are announced.
The most obvious of these is sanctions against Chinese citizens or Hong Kong companies, financial institutions or individuals. Such sanctions will obviously not be adopted without China’s response, which will only push everyone to the real situation of the Cold War, where the United States is moving fast.
Finally, the most destructive tool that the US administration can use will jeopardize the convertibility of the Hong Kong dollar, directly or indirectly.
Widely applied sanctions can indeed have an indirect effect, displacing capital from Hong Kong. An even stronger action would be for the Fed to explicitly exclude Hong Kong from recent offshore dollar liquidity support measures.
To date, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, along with many other central banks in the world, has had access to the Fed's repo center to provide the US dollar in exchange for promised US treasury bills. There is no evidence that HKMA has an official exchange line with the Fed other than the repo line, just like Singapore, and despite recent statements by Hong Kong officials. Regardless of whether the Fed provided such an exchange line or not, it is really important that it can be canceled or otherwise not provided if necessary.
Going beyond the aforementioned risks, we should not forget that some of Hong Kong's strengths do not seem to be affected by the current situation, at least for the moment, for example, a fully convertible capital account with very large foreign exchange reserves and strong financial rules with low level of taxation.
Thus, the key question is how long Hong Kong will be able to maintain such a special status if the situation continues to deteriorate, which is actually very difficult to predict.

Ovo je automatski prijevod.
Kliknite ovdje da biste pročitali publikaciju na izvornom jeziku.

Ovaj je post dostupan na sljedećim jezicima:
Deutsch   English   Español   Français   Srpsko-hrvatski   Italiano   Türkçe   Русский  

Prijavi zlostavljanje